1) HDB upgraders are slowly getting priced out of the private property market.
2) The number of HDB upgraders acquiring new OCR condominiums has fallen steeply from 53.5% in 2021 to the smallest proportion across the period of analysis.
3) Buyers of new condominiums in the outside central region (OCR) are no longer mostly HDB dwellers, and the median price per square foot (psf) for suburban condominiums reached a new benchmark of S$2,000 in 2022.
4) The OCR has the lowest number of unsold private residential units, excluding executive condominiums (ECs), which means demand is still strong.
5) Private home dwellers outnumbered HDB dwellers in the caveats lodged for new OCR condominiums in 2022 for the first time in 15 years.
6) Government cooling measures could also have affected investment demand, such as the additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) and the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) threshold, making it a very stable market.
7) New ECs are a logical upgrade for HDB owners whose salaries do not exceed the ceiling cap of S$16,000 per household. They are priced about 20% cheaper than private condominiums in the same location, and they typically have the same specifications as most OCR private condominiums.
If things left unchanged, HDB resale market may continue to remain depressed while the private property market continues at a slower pace growth, many HDB upgraders will be totally priced out of the private property market.